Client
Independent Study
Alternate CPI Methodology
Provided a forward-looking, sensitive view of inflation effects from 2022-2024
Given the Macroeconomic turbulence, I worked with the Bureau of Labor Statistics to build an alterative view of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that more accurately presented a leading view of inflation. The key changes include: annualizing 1mo inflation as opposed to YoY to avoid lapping effects, creating new item-level strata clusters based on item groups not household budget categories to better isolate item effects (i.e. remove 'fuel oil' from housing category), providing a median and standard deviation range of 1mo annualized price trends during periods of price stability (i.e. 1.5%-2.5% overall CPI) in order to better gauge which categories have reverted to baselines v which remain seculairly high.
Client
Independent Study
Alternate CPI Methodology
Provided a forward-looking, sensitive view of inflation effects from 2022-2024
Given the Macroeconomic turbulence, I worked with the Bureau of Labor Statistics to build an alterative view of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that more accurately presented a leading view of inflation. The key changes include: annualizing 1mo inflation as opposed to YoY to avoid lapping effects, creating new item-level strata clusters based on item groups not household budget categories to better isolate item effects (i.e. remove 'fuel oil' from housing category), providing a median and standard deviation range of 1mo annualized price trends during periods of price stability (i.e. 1.5%-2.5% overall CPI) in order to better gauge which categories have reverted to baselines v which remain seculairly high.
Client